cognitive capital

以前和朋友聊天時，共同的感覺是55 歲左右最可能被公司"嫌棄"。最近看到一篇美國聯邦政府的研究報告(如附圖)，一個人在經驗增加，但分析能力降低(從20歲起，每年降1%)的相互影響下, 綜合能力在50-60歲達到高峰(不考慮薪水因素)。這似乎也驗證55歲左右是"很危險"的年紀。如果再加上越來越聰明的電腦競爭，情形更不樂觀。

High development cost to justify failure

USD $2.6B cost for average new drug development? That is the number in a new study to "justify" the exorbitant price tag of brand-name drugs. However, other independent study estimated the development cost less than $0.5B. The stiff price tag for brand-name drug is sometimes intimidating. For example, Baraclude sold in Taiwan is NT$210/pill but at a gouging price of NT$1,050/pill elsewhere.
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21635005-startling-new-cost-estimate-new-medicines-met-scepticism-price-failure

Shale oil boom is not that rosy

Beholden to the surging US shale oil production, Brent crude oil price tumbled to below $73/barrel today. There is always a downside for this boom: for every 1 barrel of shale oil produced, 1.4 barrels of toxic brine is generated. Scores of inferno and serious oil spillage in North Dakota in the last two years. Shale oil production needs yet to be proved as a sustainable shot-in-the-arm for US economic development.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/11/23/us/north-dakota-oil-boom-downside.html?_r=0

ethnic diversification

Healthy ethnic diversification or victim under the justifiable race-conscious admission policy?

WASP (White Anglo-Saxon Protestant) school?

In the last 20 years, admission rate for Asian Americans has stayed flat, between 15% and 18%, though college-age population of Asian Americans has doubled. Affirmative action in favor of disadvantaged minorities stacks up against the dismissal of academic achievements in Asian students. However, it is also unapologetically and unfortunately true that there is no financial or institutional incentive for elite schools to admit Asian Americans who don't fall emphatically into the categories "wealthy, cultured and connected."
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/25/opinion/is-harvard-unfair-to-asian-americans.html?_r=0

education and income inequality

最近法國經濟學家 Piketty 在台灣演講，引起教育和貧富不均關係的熱烈討論。實際上，Piketty 在他書中並没有太多對教育的著墨。倒是一個月前，廣受尊敬的美國聯準會主席(相當中央銀行總裁) Janet Yellen 在波士頓的演講, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newseve…/…/yellen20141017a.htm，對教育和貧富不均的關係，有較深的描述。她指出創造"經濟機會"有四大因素。前兩項是她稱之為最重要奠基石，也和教育有關。第一是兒童可以擁有的資源，二是可負擔的高等教育。其他兩項則較人驚呀，一是 business ownership，二是繼承。家庭經濟狀況，必然對兒童教育有些影響。至於高等教育的負擔，大學教育在台灣真的很便宜(見附圖). 美國窮人的小孩子，只要非常努力，資質夠好，仍有很大的翻身機會。世界排名第一第二的普林斯頓和哈佛大學，學生百分之六十有獎助金，平均每人每年的 grant 超過四萬美金。哈佛大學更是家庭年收入少於六萬美金的學生，學費全免。但是不幸地仍有很多用功但貧窮的小孩遭受挫折的報導 http://www.nytimes.com/…/poor-students-struggle-as-class-pl…&

Moore's law vs. Eroom's law

For semiconductor companies, it is Moore' law (transistor count doubles for every 2 years). For pharmaceutical companies, it is Eroom's law (drug approved decreases by half for every 9 years). One of the reasons for Eroom's law: Pharmaceutical companies depend on the newfangled target-based genomics rather than the old-fashioned and laborious trial-and-error method.   

Piketty in Taiwan to pitch for his proposal of global tax on capital

French economist, Piketty, arrived in Taiwan today to give a speech about his best-selling book, "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" which was out of stock in Amazon.com for many weeks in April and May this year. The major reason for this book to make a splash this year is simply because income inequality is an ubiquitous global problem. I don't believe any economists have any elixir for this malaise of income inequality. Piketty's solution is "a global tax on capital" of which even himself admits may be Utopian. Probably to possess a competitive skill (or even multiple skills) is the only way to weather the storm of this increasingly capital-intensive society.  http://www.amazon.com/Capital-Twenty-First-Century-Thomas-Piketty/dp/067443000X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1416105105&sr=1-1&keywords=capital+in+the+twenty-first+century

Trendy way to learn language

I am an obvious old guard since I have problems to appreciate the way youths learn either Chinese or English. Jessica Beinecke's videos to teach both English and Chinese have been going viral like gangbusters in the last 3 years. It is surely interesting, cool and trendy but how about its efficacy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5T2mpr-E34

Children happiness index

UNCEF (聯合國兒童基金會) published a report about children happiness index in April, 2013. Dutch kids are happiest. Kids in Spain and Greece seem optimistic while kids in Germany are pessimistic. US kids are slightly optimistic. Kids in Taiwan probably will not be as happy as those in these 29 countries.  

Basic skills required for racing with machines

在這電腦漸漸取代人類的時代，下一代的教育最需要什麼基本技能？1825年，三個 R(Reading, wRiting, aRithmetic) 的基本技能在英國被提出，到1970年代後期都還適用。現在似乎已不完全正確。現代教育所需的能和電腦競爭的基本技能，我個人偏向於相信 "Second Machine Age" 這本書第十二章 "Learning to Race With Machines: Recommendations for Individuals" 裡面所提到的 "構思能力，綜觀的模式認知，多元的溝通”。這三種技能似乎很抽象但並不完全盡然。書中提到一個例子，西班牙服裝公司 Zara, 想知道同一個店往後一兩個星期顧客會買什麼衣服？電腦模式無法預測極短期的顧客需要。於是每個 Zara 店的經理開始不斷地和顧客"多元化溝通" 她們的需求，"綜觀認知" 顧客當天的穿著，尤其較時髦者，再用"構思”的能力，準確地將綜合觀察的結果每天彙報給總公司。似乎這一套人為系統一直比電腦模式準。那確切的教育方式又如何實施？書中提到 SOLEs (Self-Organizing Learning Environments) 自我組織學習環境。這個抽象的 SOLEs 在書中被具體地描述成(也在多年實際研究觀察出) "學生自己組成 groups, 搜尋多元的資料，團體討論溝通，構思最佳的答案"。似乎這也是翻轉教育的形式。也許翻轉教育在無形中也是人類在抗衡電腦取代人類趨勢的轉變過程中所必要的途徑。

Telepresence is on hand

Teleportation may exist in sci-fiction but telepresence is on hand now. Kids in US can feel the omnipresensce of grandma in Taiwan (maybe too much!!)    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uUb4TrPyxs

stagnant wage increase with declining unemployment rate

U.S. unemployment rate drops to 5.8% from data released today. Wage increase is still hovering around 2% in the last 3 years even with the declining unemployment rate. This stagnant wage increase bucks against the traditional expectation: "Labor shortage during declining unemployment should drive wage higher".  

High income inequality spurs "working hard" mentality

Interesting trend for parenting: "In a country with high income inequality, i.e., higher Gini index, more parents emphasize working hard in raising their offspring."   China has highest income inequality followed by US.  

novelty-seeking ADHD

今天的紐約時報有一篇過動兒(ADHD)的報導。由於現代多變化數位世界的刺激，在較沈悶的教育系統對照下，過動兒數目直線上升(由11年前的7.8%升到3年前的11% 而且全美有 6.1%的小孩在吃減輕ADHD 的藥). 遊牧民族不太可能有過動兒，因為他們不可能有長時間的枯燥環境。也許翻轉教育真能意外地減低過動兒的比率。翻轉教育的看 video 進度可自主控制，上課不再是枯坐在椅子上而是充份地討論和發問，這可以使得過動兒比一般小孩強烈的 novelty-seeking 能充分發揮。長期而言，不是特別嚴重的過動兒，反而能將自己的疾病，轉換成具有 novelty-seeking 的特質。http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/11/02/opinion/sunday/a-natural-fix-for-adhd.html?_r=1

restoration of reproductive genetics

CBS "60 Minutes" tonight has an interesting episode about reproductive genetics which is supposed to breed out any foreseeable diseases for any newborn. This technology is a substantial boon to human beings. But if "a child could have other traits, like eye color, hair color, social intelligence, even whether a child will have a widow's peak?", then, it is really scary that reproductive genetics may drastically alter the subtle balance in our current society.  http://www.cbsnews.com/news/breeding-out-disease-with-reproductive-genetics/